The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, Nov. 12 shows marked improvement across the state. Barton County has improved some with more land now up to abnormally dry. Stafford County and Pawnee actually have areas totally out of dry conditions. Almost 25 percent of the state is out of dry conditions. The six to ten-day outlook (Nov. 19 to 23) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of leaning below normal for temperatures and a normal for precipitation. The eight to 14-day outlook (Nov. 21 to 27) indicates a 30 to 40% chance of leaning below normal for temperatures and normal to slightly below normal for precipitation.
A great deal has happened over the last month or two. Today, let’s take a moment to catch our breath and see where the agricultural community stands after a busy fall season.
• Harvest is essentially complete and ahead of the five-year average. While there were dryland fields that were abandoned, it was overall a much better year for summer row crops than the last several. Not a great year but a few rains helped. Overall, irrigated corn and soybean crops were good.
• Wheat planting is also almost 100% complete. The pace of fall harvest helped those double cropping after summer crops plant more timely than usual. Overall establishment is good and the crops planted into drier soils have pretty much germinated and emerged thanks to recent rains. The increase in soil moisture will also help the wheat survive winter and be in good shape for spring unless it turns off extremely warm with below normal precipitation. The temperature outlook won’t help establishment for late emerging or planted wheat but it won’t hurt. Also compared to the last several years, good wheat and rye pasture should be available for cattle which is needed with the current hay supply.
• The recent rains over the last two weeks have markedly improved the condition of alfalfa fields and helps the plants prepare for dormancy. Much better conditions than the last three plus years.
• On the downside, prices for grains and beans aren’t great. Much of the gains from better yields are offset by low commodity prices. There is a lot going on politically and in this country that needs to be shaken out for these markets over the next six months or so.
• There still isn’t a Farm Bill. With the results of the election, it’s likely there won’t be one before the new Congress or one the incoming President doesn’t agree with. So, a wait and see attitude combined with patience is important.
• Finally, part of the unsettled nature of markets will continue until we are at least three to four months past now. The promised tariffs could result in a tariff war which could dramatically hurt exports that are a substantial part of sales. And the construction and agriculture sectors are preparing for possible mass deportations as immigrant labor is a substantial part of the workforce.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
