As of Tuesday, Sept. 30, the drought monitor report indicates little change from last week. The state is at 82% out of dry conditions. The only abnormally dry, moderate drought parts of Kansas are North Central along Nebraska and Eastern Kansas along the Missouri Border. The six to 10-day outlook (Oct. 6-10) indicates a 40-60% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and a 33-50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. The eight to 14-day outlook (Oct. 8-14) indicates a 50-60% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and 33-40% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. Hopefully the precipitation happens as these warm temperatures are great for harvest but not for keeping soil moisture for winter wheat.
The state overall is definitely in better shape than the last half decade for establishing the 2026 wheat crop. However, producers know that surface and subsurface soil moisture can disappear quickly. These warm temperatures, while good for wheat emergence, early season establishment and tillering, can cause problems such as too much fall growth and soil moisture depletion. We know the crop can go backwards in a hurry and wheat that looks terrible can recover to a significant degree. So, what is NOAA saying the outlook is for fall, winter and spring?
For October, temperatures are leaning above normal and precipitation below normal, with normal only around two inches. Fortunately, most of our area is in decent shape on soil moisture. The October through December outlook is for 40-50% leaning above normal with precipitation leaning 33-50% below normal. Great for finishing up harvest but not for wheat heading into winter unless its late planted wheat. From November through January, the trend continues for above normal temperatures with equal chances of below or above normal precipitation. Normal for these months is about an inch of liquid precipitation give or take.
December through January at least has equal chance of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. This indicates that there is currently no strong El Nino or La Nina on the horizon. Once January through March come around, the outlook is for continued equal chances, so there’s hope for a more normal winter. Up through April, this trend continues. By March, we are up to around two inches of liquid precipitation and up to three inches, or so, in April. April through June, as of today, is looking for normal precipitation, and above normal temperatures are starting to creep back in.
Not fantastic, but not a horrible outlook. These outlooks are updated monthly, and things do change. However, these outlooks are overall pretty spot on. The major change would be if an El Nino or La Nina develop.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
