The drought monitor, as of Tuesday, March 3rd, indicates that much of the southern third of the state, as far as Stafford and Reno Counties with it creeping into Barton Counties, is in moderate drought or abnormally dry. Extreme Southeast Kansas is in severe drought. We have gone from 64% totally out of dry conditions to 54%. Our area is in good shape. The six- to 10-day forecast (March 10-14) indicates a 40-50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 33- 40% of leaning above normal for precipitation. The eight- to 14-day forecast (March 12-18) indicates a 33-50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 33-40% chance of leaning below normal for precipitation.
Today’s topic deals with the possible effects of international conflicts on our agricultural industry. This doesn’t have to involve military actions as conflict between countries comes in many forms. In general terms, what are the possible effects, both good and bad, on producers when nations come into conflict?
• During World War I, American agriculture saw a boom as the war in Europe opened markets for our agricultural products overseas. The downside was that after the end of the war, there was a major collapse in demand overseas and American agriculture was in a “depression” long before 1929.
• Union farmers did quite well during the Civil War with the major challenge being able to obtain enough help. Many ag companies made fortunes selling provisions to the government for troops. Ferdinand Schumacher and Robert Stuart founded their fledgling company in the 1850s and later split. Schumacher’s company moved to Akron, Ohio and made a fortune during the war. You know his company today as Quaker Oats.
• World War II also saw a boom for agricultural commodities. Food production was deemed so essential that draft exemptions were available for farmers. Again, the major challenge was enough labor. Many of you may be familiar with the German POW camps in Kansas and in many cases, this helped provide labor.
• Food programs such as USAID and others were used during the conflict of the Cold War as a way to help nations in need and to stave off communism.
• During the Carter administration, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, sales were halted to the Soviet Bloc and significantly hurt commodity prices.
• The “Tariff Wars” caused a spike in all aspects of input and machinery costs and negatively effect commodity prices due to export disruptions.
• More recently starting with Desert Storm and up through the current conflict with Iran, and you can see through the Ukraine War in there, these conflicts have caused spikes in oil prices and that has increased fuel prices for ag as well as the costs for nitrogen and other fertilizers.
Exports of commodities such as wheat are being disrupted with all that’s going on in the Middle East.
Doctor Dan Witt is a retired physician and nature enthusiast. He can be reached at danwitt01@gmail.com.
