As of Tuesday, Dec. 23, the drought monitor report indicates no real change from last week. The only part of the state suffering from a deficiency is the eastern third of Kansas and a bit of North Central. The six-to 10-day outlook (Dec. 29 to Jan. 2) indicates a 60-70% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and a 40-50% chance of leaning below normal for precipitation. The eight- to 14-day outlook (Dec. 31 to Jan. 6) indicates a 70- 90% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and near normal for precipitation. Normal is essentially none.
Last week, we reviewed some of the important ag stories from 2025. Today, and without a crystal ball, is what may be some of the potentially important ag stories for 2026.
• How the continued tariff issues will continue to play out will continue as a major issue. China has committed to purchasing some soybeans and bean export sales have ticked up to other countries. Corn export sales are good, and we are moving some wheat, thanks in part to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. Also, the Ukraine has been the fourth largest exporter of corn but for obvious reasons, exports there are down significantly. The Federal Government and commodity groups are working to expand markets across the globe. As a side note, exports of commodities have been hurt but cuts in various federal programs such as USAID.
• Low prices for crop commodities will continue to vex producers, especially when combined with high input prices. As many inputs, from chemicals to combines are either manufactured overseas or made in the U.S. with components or other materials from abroad, the tariffs come into play. A potential bright spot is lower oil prices, which may help a bit. The downside is that corn prices (think ethanol) track with oil prices. Another factor influencing higher prices, especially nitrogen, is the rising cost for electricity. Producing anhydrous ammonia takes a lot of energy.
• The one sector of the ag economy that has done significantly better than the crop side is the beef sector. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in 2026 and how packers and the public will react regarding demand.
• Will we finally see a Farm Bill? Many parts of the Farm Bill where addressed after a fashion in the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” However, there are major issues regarding nutrition assistance, crop insurance and a myriad of other factors. The $12 billion payments, scheduled to come early in 2026, will help but in no way make producers whole.
• For the State of Kansas, will Topeka, legislators, the governor, and producer groups make real progress on addressing water quantity and quality issues?
• Finally, in Kansas there are races for statewide offices, the Kansas House, and federal offices in Congress. Nationwide, what will happen in November to control of the House and Senate?
