The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, June 3rd shows continued improvement for the state with an increase from 30 to 42% of the state totally out of dry conditions. East Central, Southeast, and most of South Central Kansas are totally out of dry conditions along with a portion of North Central and a small part of Northeast and West Central parts of the state. Our area is unchanged with the northeastern/north central part of Barton County still listed in moderate drought. However, the southern three-quarters of Stafford County is now out of dry conditions. This doesn’t include the Wednesday rain. The six-to ten-day outlook (June 10 to 14) indicates a 33 to 50% chance of leaning below normal temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. The eight to 14-day outlook (June 12 to 18) indicates a 33 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. Overall, not bad for summer crops but a little wet as wheat harvest approaches. Now, what are predictions for our weather for summer crops.
• June has equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and we are seeing that so far. Normal as we progress through the month should move toward the higher 80s. They are predicting above normal precipitation for the state, upwards of a 40% chance of above normal precipitation and parts of the state have certainly seen that so far.
• For the period of June through August, we are looking at a 40 to 60% chance of above normal temperatures which would mean upper 90s and above. This is a crucial time for corn, grain sorghum, and soybeans. With luck, corn should be pollinated and start developing kernels so if the above normal precipitation of June might allow it adequate moisture, but yields will still be affected. Corn growth locally is overall ahead of the last several years. Soybeans will need that soil moisture if August, especially late August. Sorghum is best adapted to weather conditions if it’s established. To compound matters, the outlook is for a 33 to 40% chance of below normal precipitation.
• For August through October, the outlook is leaning toward above normal temperatures, in fact for the entire country, and normal to leaning below normal for precipitation. This would most negatively affect soybeans and grain sorghum and not help corn. It would also present challenges for fall planted alfalfa and the 2026 wheat crop. Also, not a favorable forecast for pasture and forage production. Hopefully, hay production through mid-July will be adequate.
In summary, the outlook isn’t terrible or as bad as the worst of the drought but not great either. Producers are aware that dryland yields, especially in Western Kansas are impacted every year by heat stress and drought. One positive is that wheat yields across the state are better than last year’s. Time will tell how accurate these outlooks are, bit they are typically pretty good.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
