The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, Oct. 13, indicates the beneficial effects of last week’s rain, but this week’s rain fell after the deadline. We are unchanged from the previous report. Almost half of Barton County and much of the surrounding area to the south range from moderate to severe drought. The northern third of Barton County is exceptionally dry. The six- to 10-day forecast (Oct. 20 to Oct. 24) indicates a 60% to 70% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and 50% to 60% of likely above normal for precipitation. The eight- to 14-day forecast (Oct. 22 to 28) indicates a 40% to 50% chance of leaning above normal temperatures and a continued 40% to 50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. Above-average temperatures mean in the upper 70s to low 80s, so not bad for establishing wheat. The chance of above-normal precipitation is good news but remember normal for October here is approximately two inches.

Most of the state is definitely in much better shape regarding drought than a month ago. Wheat that is up in our area is looking good and starting to tiller. However, last year’s wheat crop started off in good shape, especially moisture-wise and we all know what happened. So today, what is NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, seeing over the next nine to 12 months?

• It’s helpful to remember that we are dealing with a super El Niño and NOAA is still waiting to see just how “super” and how quickly it will abate.
• For this month through December, they are predicting equal chances of above or below normal for precipitation. Remember our normal liquid equivalent precipitation falls off to an inch or so in our area from November through January. Overall, not bad for wheat establishment.
• November through January continues the pattern just mentioned. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens. And within the next three to four weeks, potential changes in El Niño may alter this outlook significantly.
• We start to see a predicted shift in temperatures for December through February, with temperature leaning above normal by 33 to 40%. On the plus side, the precipitation outlook increases to 40 to 50% above normal, which would be welcome, even if in the form of snow or freezing rain. And as long as the temperatures don’t track too far above normal, wheat should be in decent shape.
• NOAA isn’t quite sure about February through April, nothing unusual here, with equal chances of above or below normal for both temperature and precipitation. By January, forecasters and their models should have a better understanding for the outlook.
• Finally, April through June is leaning slightly above normal for temperatures and equal chances for moisture. This may change as the El Niño eases and a possible La Niña develops.

Overall, as of today, the outlook for the 2027 wheat crop isn’t great, but also isn’t bad.

Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.